Published Articles
Intergenerational Earnings Mobility in Mexico, Journal of Income Distribution, 2026. Related working paper.
Abstract
Intergenerational mobility is a key concern in unequal societies, yet evidence from developing countries remains scarce due to limited linked earnings data across generations. This paper estimates intergenerational earnings mobility in Mexico using a regularised Two-Sample Two-Stage Least Squares (TSTSLS) approach that integrates machine learning regularisation techniques to improve prediction and mitigate measurement error biases.
I combine retrospective family background data from the 2011 ESRU Social Mobility Survey with earnings data from the National Urban Employment Survey (1987–1991), constructing accurate proxies for permanent parental income through a “pseudo-parent” imputation strategy matched on demographic characteristics. I estimate the intergenerational elasticity of earnings and rank-rank coefficient at national, urban, and regional levels, systematically evaluating attenuation and life-cycle bias effects. Results reveal substantially lower mobility than previously suggested. On average, 64% of fathers’ earnings advantage is transmitted to their children.
Moreover, a 10 percentile point increase in fathers’ earnings rank is associated with a 3.1 percentile points increase in the children’s earnings rank. Regional disparities are stark, the South exhibits highest persistence while the North shows greatest mobility, positioning Mexico among the least mobile countries globally. These findings underscore the need for targeted regional policies to address Mexico’s spatial inequality in economic opportunity.
Determinantes y perfiles de la participación laboral en Colombia en el periodo 2002–2013 (with Néstor I. González-Quintero), Revista de Economía del Rosario, 2015, 18(1), pp. 5–59.
Abstract
In order to find the main determinants of labor participation in Colombia over a sample of individuals representative of the country’s labor force; and to establish the relative importance of these determinants for the explanation of the observed dynamics of the labor participation rate in the period 2002-2013, probit models are estimate and, based on conditional probabilities of participation, participation profiles are constructed for four different groups of men and women established by age. To have some tertiary education; the presence of children in the household; and to be a pensioner, are key factors for understanding such observed dynamics.
Gender Earning Gaps around the World: A Study of 64 Countries (with Hugo Ñopo and Johanna Ramos), International Journal of Manpower, 2012, 33(5), pp. 464–513.
Abstract
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze gender disparities in labor earnings for a comprehensive set of 64 countries.
Design/methodology/approach: Using the methodological approach proposed by Ñopo, socio-demographic characteristics are used to match males and females such that gender earnings disparities are computed only among individuals with the same observable characteristics.
Findings: Disparities are partially attributed to gender differences in observable socio-demographic and job characteristics. After matching males and females with the same characteristics, the authors found that the earnings gap falls within a range between 8 per cent and 48 per cent of average females’ earnings, being more pronounced in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The unexplained earnings gaps are more pronounced among part-time workers and those with low education levels.
Originality/value: This paper presents a comprehensive view of gender earnings gaps in the world, simultaneously exploring many of the issues highlighted in the related literature. It adds value by exploring gender gaps in a comparative perspective, applying the same methods for several different countries.
Determinants of Civil Conflict in Colombia: How Robust are they? (with Mauricio Rodríguez), Defence and Peace Economics, 2012, 23(2), pp. 109–131.
Abstract
We analyze how the determinants of the civil conflict in Colombia at the municipal level respond to changes in the empirical strategy. We estimate several econometric models that vary in three dimensions: 1) the data set, 2) the measure of conflict, and 3) the estimation method. We find substantial differences in the signs and statistical significance of the marginal effects in response to using a different data set, changing the definition of conflict, and employing different empirical methodologies.
Papers Under Review
Food and Physical Activity Environments and Children’s Health: Evidence from the Millennium Cohort Study (with David Church, Gabriella Conti, Rong Hai and Fan Wang).
Revise and resubmit, International Journal of Population Data Science.International Variation in Inequality of Opportunity: Insights from 72 Countries.
Submitted to Nature.Related working paper: Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility: A Database, 2026.
Working paper citation
Ferreira, F. H. G., V. Peragine, P. Brunori, P. Salas-Rojo, D. Moramarco, L. Barajas, T. Barbieri, N. Daza-Báez, G. Datt, V. de Sandi, F. Farella, A. Martinez Jr., J. Nguyen, A. Park, E. Simeone, L. Sirugue, P. Torres-Lopez, and G. Zotti (2026). Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility: A Database.
Work in Progress
Nature and Nurture in the Production of Childhood BMI (with Gabriella Conti, Rong Hai and Fan Wang).
Menopause, HRT and Women’s Well-being: Evidence from the UK (with Gabriella Conti, Emilia Del Bono and Fatima Najeeb).
Intergenerational Mobility and Assortative Mating in Mexico.
Intergenerational Transmission of Health in the UK (with Emla Fitzsimons and George Ploubidis).
Research Projects
- Airborne Pollution and Life-Course Population Health. Principal Investigator, ONS Longitudinal Study project, with Gabriella Conti.
- Educational and Mental Health Outcomes of Childhood Cancer Survivors. Lead analyst, using ECHILD linked administrative data.
- Childhood Obesity Working Group. Participant.
Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility (GEOM)
I was part of the research team behind GEOM, an international project producing comparable estimates of inequality of opportunity. The database covers 72 countries using 196 household surveys. Its website provides access to the estimates, interactive comparisons, and country-level documentation.
Explore the data · Research team
Research Software
Optimal.sample
With Brendon McConnell and Marcos Vera-Hernández, 2022.
An R package for planning cluster randomised trials when treatment and control costs differ. It helps researchers choose the number of clusters and participants per cluster to maximise statistical power within a budget, or minimise costs for a specified level of power. It assumes a continuous outcome measured after treatment.
Documentation and examples · Source code
Related paper: Brendon McConnell and Marcos Vera-Hernández, More Powerful Cluster Randomized Controlled Trials, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2026.